March 15, 2025 – Canada’s commitment to purchasing 88 F-35 stealth fighter jets from Lockheed Martin is under review, as Defence Minister Bill Blair signaled a potential shift in the country’s military procurement strategy. The reconsideration comes less than two years after the Liberal government signed a $19 billion contract in June 2023 to acquire the U.S.-built aircraft, with the first 16 jets slated for delivery in 2026. The move reflects growing geopolitical uncertainties, including trade tensions with the United States and domestic calls for greater technological independence.
Speaking on CBC ‘s Power and Politics on March 14, 2025, Blair acknowledged that while the F-35 remains the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) preferred platform, the government is now evaluating whether all 88 jets need to be F-35s. “We’re looking at all options,” Blair said, hinting at the possibility of diversifying the fleet with alternatives such as the Swedish-built Saab Gripen. This marks a notable pivot from the RCAF’s long-standing endorsement of the F-35 as the best fit to replace Canada’s aging CF-18 Hornet fleet.
The reconsideration appears to be driven by multiple factors. Recent threats of tariffs from the U.S. administration have raised concerns about economic and military reliance on American systems. The F-35, while advanced, comes with significant long-term costs and dependencies, including maintenance and software updates controlled by the U.S. Some Canadian analysts and policymakers have argued that diversifying procurement could bolster sovereignty and reduce vulnerability to shifts in U.S. policy. The Saab Gripen, a lighter and less expensive fighter with a strong reputation for adaptability, has emerged as a potential contender to fill at least part of the order.
The original F-35 deal was the culmination of years of debate and competition. In 2015, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau campaigned against buying the F-35, calling it too costly and unproven. However, after a competitive bidding process pitting the F-35 against Boeing’s Super Hornet and the Gripen, the government reversed course in 2022, selecting the Lockheed Martin jet. The decision was hailed as a step toward modernizing Canada’s air force and ensuring interoperability with NATO allies, many of whom operate the F-35. Critics, however, decried the price tag and questioned the jet’s suitability for Canada’s vast northern territories.
Now, with delivery timelines approaching, the government faces a delicate balancing act. Cancelling or amending the contract could incur financial penalties and strain relations with the U.S., a key ally and partner in NORAD. On the other hand, sticking to the plan risks locking Canada into a system that some see as overly dependent on American goodwill—a concern amplified by recent cross-border friction.
Public and military reactions have been mixed. RCAF officials have emphasized the F-35’s cutting-edge stealth and sensor capabilities, arguing it’s essential for countering modern threats. Meanwhile, proponents of diversification point to Sweden’s Gripen as a cost-effective alternative that could be paired with a smaller F-35 fleet, offering flexibility without sacrificing capability.
No final decision has been announced, and Blair stressed that consultations with military leaders and industry stakeholders are ongoing. “We’re committed to ensuring our air force has the tools it needs,” he said. “But we also have to be pragmatic about the world we’re living in today.”
As Canada weighs its options, the outcome of this review could reshape its defense posture for decades. For now, the fate of the F-35 deal hangs in the balance, a symbol of the broader challenges facing a nation navigating an increasingly uncertain global landscape.